US and Russia Hold First Talks in Two Years, Signaling Possible Shift in Ukraine Strategy

February 18, 2025 – The United States and Russia held their first official talks in nearly two years, marking a significant diplomatic step in addressing the ongoing war in Ukraine. The high-level meeting, hosted in Saudi Arabia, brought together key figures from both nations as discussions focused on potential paths toward a resolution.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio had spoken with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov three days prior to the talks, later stating that he was convinced Russia was prepared for a “serious process” to end the war. Rubio, a long-time critic of prolonged US involvement in Ukraine, emphasized that Ukraine and Europe must be part of any negotiations, dismissing concerns of sidelining key stakeholders.

Shifting US Priorities and Calls for Economic Returns

Rubio has consistently voiced opposition to continued US military aid for Ukraine, voting against a $6 billion assistance package in 2024. He believes China, not Russia, is America’s primary adversary and argues that Beijing benefits from Washington’s prolonged focus on European conflicts.

US National Security Adviser Mike Waltz reiterated after the talks that the US seeks a permanent resolution to the war rather than a temporary ceasefire. However, he suggested over the weekend that Ukraine should offer “some type of payback” for the billions in US aid, highlighting its rare earth minerals, natural resources, and energy assets as potential areas of partnership.

Trump’s Envoy and Russia’s Economic Focus

Adding a layer of complexity to the negotiations was the involvement of Steve Witkoff, a close ally of former President Donald Trump and his chosen envoy for Middle East diplomacy. Witkoff, who previously helped broker Israel’s ceasefire with Hamas, made a surprise visit to Moscow last week, just before the US-Russia meeting. His role in recent prisoner exchanges, including securing the release of Marc Fogel, indicates his increasing influence as a dealmaker in Trump’s administration.

Russia’s delegation featured two veteran diplomats—Sergei Lavrov and Yuri Ushakov, a former ambassador to the US. Ushakov had previously dismissed Biden administration warnings of a Russian invasion as “hysteria” and signaled Moscow’s readiness for negotiations following Trump’s return to office.

A notable presence was Kirill Dmitriev, head of Russia’s Direct Investment Fund, underscoring Russia’s economic priorities in the discussions. Dmitriev, a Harvard-educated former Goldman Sachs banker, stated that economic cooperation—especially in the Arctic and energy sectors—was a key focus. Despite claims that Russia’s economy remains strong, military and security spending now consumes 43% of the national budget, inflation is nearing 10%, and interest rates have hit 21%.

Saudi Arabia’s Role in the Talks

Saudi Arabia facilitated the meeting but refrained from direct involvement in discussions. Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan and National Security Adviser Musaed al-Aiban chaired the opening session before stepping aside. Both have been central figures in Saudi Arabia’s increasing diplomatic role, including efforts to lift sanctions on Syria and expand regional influence under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

While no immediate agreements were reached, the meeting signals a potential shift in US-Russia diplomacy. With Russia facing economic strain and Washington looking to refocus its geopolitical priorities, further discussions could shape the future of the Ukraine conflict—but any resolution will require European and Ukrainian cooperation.